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Calm before the storm?

 Right now, everything in Parable of the Sower is very stable and calm. Lauren's group is quickly expanding, and everyone trusts each other right now. They're safe, well-armed, and well-supplied. I'm tempted to think that it'll be smooth sailing from here on, but this is a dystopia so there must be something big and horrible coming. I think it's quite likely that at least one member of the main group will die in the next few chapters, so I am going to rank each character in terms of how likely I think they are to die, and explain my reasoning for these rankings.

1. Jill: she's in shock, unarmed, and weak from what we know. Also not a significant character yet, so killing her off would be easy for Butler to do.

2. Harry: his death would completely shake up the book, and further Lauren's detachment from her neighborhood (which would push her further into Earthseed). He's also not cautious enough. Butler has sprung some huge changes on us, and this would fit in with what we've seen so far.

3. The baby: because babies don't seem to survive in this book.

4. Natividad: her survival skills don't seem to be very well-honed, and she is weighed down by the baby.

5.  Bankole: he's the oldest member of their group, so his chances aren't great.

6. Zahra: She lived on the streets for long enough that I think she could pull all the way through. But, she could get killed off to completely separate Lauren from her neighborhood.

7. Allie: she doesn't seem to know how to survive or have any supplies, but she's annoying enough that I think she'll stay around to create conflict in their party.

8. Travis: he's super tough, and he has a strong bond with Lauren. As the first convert to Earthseed, I think he'll stick around.

9. Lauren: she's the protagonist -- she can't die.

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